Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092023 230817 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.3 9.9 11.2 11.4 12.6 15.1 28.3 22.3 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 29.0 28.0 26.0 27.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 89.3 84.6 71.5 49.3 20.9 1.9 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 124.0 221.0 146.0 124.0 178.0 76.0 100.0 -13.0 F VF VF F VF N F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 77.0 74.0 65.0 60.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -7.0 -10.0 -6.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 F F F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 88.0% 71.5% 79.8% 25kt / 24h 99.0% 95.3% 97.1% 30kt / 24h 99.0% 95.3% 97.1% 35kt / 24h 99.0% 95.3% 97.1% 40kt / 24h 99.0% 94.9% 96.9% 45kt / 36h 91.1% 86.0% 88.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 78.8% 39.4% 55kt / 48h 51.2% 63.3% 57.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 EP092023 230817 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 107.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.3 9.9 11.2 11.4 12.6 15.1 28.3 22.3 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 77.0 74.0 65.0 60.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -7.0 -10.0 -6.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 U U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%