Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092023 230818 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 87.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.7 11.9 12.8 16.8 21.3 29.3 23.2 24.5 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 25.0 28.0 27.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.3 54.6 47.9 41.5 19.3 -9.1 -27.4 -38.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 170.0 160.0 142.0 125.0 80.0 77.0 -28.0 58.0 VF VF VF F N N VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 81.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 65.0 59.0 54.0 F F F F F N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -3.0 1.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 -3.0 -8.0 F N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 69.7% 36.4% 53.0% 25kt / 24h 70.5% 58.7% 64.6% 30kt / 24h 54.8% 55.1% 55.0% 35kt / 24h 54.8% 55.1% 55.0% 40kt / 24h 54.8% 52.4% 53.6% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.16 EP092023 230818 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.7 11.9 12.8 16.8 21.3 29.3 23.2 24.5 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 81.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 65.0 59.0 54.0 U U U U U N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -3.0 1.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 -3.0 -8.0 U N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%