Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092023 230818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  12.8  15.2  16.9  22.9  24.0  25.1  30.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  28.0  17.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.6  37.3  26.5  20.5  -7.8 -37.6 -53.8 -51.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   146.0 155.0 143.0  80.0  82.0  -8.0  24.0  39.0 VF VF VF  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  65.0  61.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  14.0   7.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.5%       24.3%       41.9%
 25kt / 24h       46.2%       30.4%       38.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP092023 230818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  12.8  15.2  16.9  22.9  24.0  25.1  30.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  65.0  61.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   6.0   5.0   4.0  14.0   7.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%