Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092023 230818 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 111.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 17.2 16.6 16.4 27.8 27.7 29.0 45.3 F F F F N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 28.0 16.0 10.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 32.3 21.5 15.5 -0.7 -29.1 -47.4 -36.3 -68.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 141.0 96.0 81.0 83.0 55.0 -34.0 45.0 54.0 VF F N N N VU N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 65.0 58.0 54.0 57.0 F F F N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 -29.0 N U U N N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 37.3% 10.3% 23.8% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 EP092023 230818 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 111.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 17.2 16.6 16.4 27.8 27.7 29.0 45.3 N N N U N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 65.0 58.0 54.0 57.0 U U U N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 -29.0 N F F N N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5%