Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092023 230819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  16.2  24.4  27.0  23.9  34.3  55.7  59.1  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  10.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.5   9.3  -1.4 -18.0 -46.0 -47.2 -61.3 -66.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  -9.0  32.0 104.0 111.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  54.0  52.0  57.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   9.0   4.0  -1.0  -6.0  16.0   3.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.28

 EP092023 230819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.