Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092023 230819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  24.3  30.3  29.9  27.8  57.5  55.8  55.8  F  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.3  -1.4 -27.2 -32.6 -48.3 -52.3 -65.5 -65.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  56.0  62.0  14.0  28.0  53.0  82.0  82.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  62.0  56.0  46.0  51.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  -8.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  N  F VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.16

 EP092023 230819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.