Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092023 230820 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 114.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 32.4 33.9 44.5 57.5 57.5 57.5 57.5 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -7.4 -18.3 -18.3 -18.3 -34.7 -34.7 -34.7 -34.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 7.0 -3.0 50.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 N U U N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 50.0 49.0 51.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 -5.0 1.0 -25.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 U F N VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.52 EP092023 230820 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 114.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.