Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092023 230820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  49.0  55.2  57.6  70.6  70.6  70.6  70.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          2.8   1.7 -11.3 -14.2 -18.8 -18.8 -18.8 -18.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  63.0  62.0 -20.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  N  N VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  60.0  62.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -14.0 -20.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F VF VF  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 19.14

 EP092023 230820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.