Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102023 230827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  15.6  14.6  15.7  13.1  17.4  14.3  16.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4  99.4  97.7  94.3  82.2  80.8  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  57.0  49.0  56.0   0.0 -31.0  -2.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  58.0  51.0  46.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.5%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        2.0%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        3.0%        2.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 EP102023 230827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.