Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102023 230827 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 119.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.2 14.3 12.9 11.2 13.9 16.8 17.2 16.5 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.5 101.2 97.7 96.0 83.6 80.8 80.8 88.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 48.0 80.0 41.0 -39.0 7.0 -23.0 -25.0 N N N N VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 62.0 58.0 51.0 45.0 40.0 40.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.4% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 6.3% 3.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 1.3% 3.1% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 1.9% 1.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 EP102023 230827 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 119.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.