Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102023 230827 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.6 12.5 11.7 12.0 18.1 15.5 18.2 14.4 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.5 94.4 92.7 89.3 77.2 86.1 84.6 83.0 N N N N U N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 68.0 89.0 45.0 -13.0 -8.0 -27.0 -23.0 20.0 N F N U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 59.0 57.0 51.0 45.0 43.0 44.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 5.4% 3.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 2.0% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 8.7% 4.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 1.8% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 0.9% 2.2% 1.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 EP102023 230827 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.