Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102023 230828 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 122.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 13.1 15.1 17.5 15.0 19.1 15.0 17.0 F F F F F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.4 83.0 81.5 77.2 77.2 75.8 74.4 74.4 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 10.0 -10.0 -7.0 -20.0 -40.0 1.0 54.0 N U U U VU VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 53.0 51.0 45.0 43.0 44.0 40.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 3.0 3.0 -6.0 1.0 -1.0 5.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.5% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 EP102023 230828 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 122.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.