Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102023 230828 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.8 13.6 15.2 17.1 18.6 17.2 13.3 17.7 F F F F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.7 86.5 85.0 82.2 82.2 80.8 79.4 79.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 -7.0 -12.0 -14.0 -18.0 -1.0 22.0 -1.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 56.0 54.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 43.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 0.3% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.12 EP102023 230828 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.