Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102023 230828 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 123.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.10 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.9 13.6 15.1 15.1 15.8 14.1 16.5 19.6 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 80.0 77.2 77.2 75.8 75.8 74.4 73.0 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -14.0 -7.0 -10.0 12.0 4.0 28.0 -5.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 54.0 50.0 49.0 51.0 48.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.2% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.90 EP102023 230828 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 123.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.