Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102023 230828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  13.3  13.7  17.1  15.0  14.8  16.8  20.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  77.2  77.2  77.2  75.8  75.8  74.4  67.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -11.0 -10.0 -12.0  -3.0   9.0   0.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.74

 EP102023 230828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.