Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102023 230829 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.9 15.4 17.1 17.2 13.2 15.6 18.0 21.5 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.2 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 -11.0 -14.0 -2.0 -6.0 5.0 -27.0 9.0 U U U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 45.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -5.0 0.0 4.0 -3.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.98 EP102023 230829 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.