Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102023 230829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  18.7  16.2  15.0  15.4  17.1  23.4  26.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  62.9  62.9  62.9  62.9  62.9  62.9  62.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -22.0   1.0  -6.0  -2.0 -18.0 -12.0   2.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.92

 EP102023 230829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.