Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102023 230829 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 16.6 16.9 15.4 21.0 27.0 35.9 45.1 F F F F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.9 67.9 75.8 74.4 67.9 67.9 67.9 69.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -11.0 -3.0 -6.0 -35.0 -15.0 -6.0 7.0 U U U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 51.0 50.0 49.0 46.0 43.0 42.0 VU U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.12 EP102023 230829 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.