Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230904 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 103.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 18.4 15.6 18.2 16.8 13.2 15.0 17.1 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 27.0 24.0 23.0 22.0 23.0 25.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 122.9 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 116.0 125.0 137.0 167.0 166.0 153.0 169.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 81.0 83.0 83.0 86.0 86.0 85.0 82.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 -10.0 -12.0 -12.0 -9.0 -4.0 N N F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.6% 3.4% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 17.8% 38.1% 28.0% 30kt / 24h 6.8% 18.7% 12.7% 35kt / 24h 2.6% 18.6% 10.6% 40kt / 24h 1.7% 18.6% 10.1% 45kt / 36h 18.5% 50.5% 34.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 25.5% 12.8% 55kt / 48h 37.7% 43.0% 40.3% 70kt / 48h 18.9% 37.4% 28.2% 65kt / 72h 53.9% 67.5% 60.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.76 EP112023 230904 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 103.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 18.4 15.6 18.2 16.8 13.2 15.0 17.1 N N U N N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 81.0 83.0 83.0 86.0 86.0 85.0 82.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -6.0 -10.0 -12.0 -12.0 -9.0 -4.0 N N U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%