Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230905 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 105.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 18.0 17.7 18.7 13.1 13.2 14.6 16.7 N F F N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 23.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 38.0 15.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 116.5 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 115.0 105.0 102.0 134.0 153.0 160.0 129.0 135.0 F F F VF VF VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 83.0 83.0 84.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 83.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -6.0 -8.0 -7.0 -9.0 -10.0 -8.0 -3.0 F F F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 2.3% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 13.1% 31.4% 22.2% 30kt / 24h 3.7% 15.1% 9.4% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 14.3% 7.7% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 14.3% 7.6% 45kt / 36h 13.3% 43.6% 28.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 20.7% 10.3% 55kt / 48h 36.5% 42.3% 39.4% 70kt / 48h 15.1% 32.7% 23.9% 65kt / 72h 47.9% 61.0% 54.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.72 EP112023 230905 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 105.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 18.0 17.7 18.7 13.1 13.2 14.6 16.7 N N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 83.0 83.0 84.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 83.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -6.0 -8.0 -7.0 -9.0 -10.0 -8.0 -3.0 U U U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%