Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  21.1  18.3  12.9  14.4  15.3  15.7  13.9  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  21.0  22.0  40.0  19.0  24.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 117.9  96.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  93.0 132.0 127.0 170.0 152.0 141.0 126.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.2%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.3%       36.3%       27.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%       18.8%       13.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       18.8%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       18.8%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%       48.9%       35.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.2%       12.6%
 55kt / 48h       39.1%       42.9%       41.0%
 70kt / 48h       20.2%       33.6%       26.9%
 65kt / 72h       46.6%       54.3%       50.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 EP112023 230905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  21.1  18.3  12.9  14.4  15.3  15.7  13.9  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%