Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230905 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 107.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 18.8 14.4 13.7 15.7 15.5 16.4 8.8 N N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 19.0 20.0 25.0 40.0 14.0 31.0 2.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 112.3 97.4 82.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 144.0 152.0 160.0 155.0 154.0 146.0 88.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 85.0 81.0 73.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 -7.0 -7.0 -9.0 -9.0 -5.0 0.0 F F F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.3% 17.0% 17.1% 25kt / 24h 60.2% 73.3% 66.8% 30kt / 24h 39.0% 61.8% 50.4% 35kt / 24h 39.0% 61.8% 50.4% 40kt / 24h 39.0% 61.7% 50.4% 45kt / 36h 51.3% 78.3% 64.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 61.9% 30.9% 55kt / 48h 50.1% 62.9% 56.5% 70kt / 48h 24.7% 59.2% 42.0% 65kt / 72h 38.4% 62.4% 50.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 EP112023 230905 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 107.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 18.8 14.4 13.7 15.7 15.5 16.4 8.8 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 85.0 81.0 73.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 -7.0 -7.0 -9.0 -9.0 -5.0 0.0 U U U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%