Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230905 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.70 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 16.8 11.9 15.5 14.9 14.4 13.4 14.5 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 20.0 24.0 36.0 22.0 19.0 20.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 97.9 85.5 67.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 139.0 141.0 145.0 190.0 147.0 154.0 111.0 27.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 84.0 86.0 86.0 84.0 83.0 76.0 71.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -7.0 -10.0 -12.0 -4.0 -4.0 6.0 F F F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.5% 30.3% 37.4% 25kt / 24h 80.7% 84.3% 82.5% 30kt / 24h 64.7% 81.3% 73.0% 35kt / 24h 55.5% 81.3% 68.4% 40kt / 24h 55.5% 80.2% 67.8% 45kt / 36h 66.2% 82.9% 74.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 71.3% 35.6% 55kt / 48h 50.8% 69.4% 60.1% 70kt / 48h 24.7% 63.2% 43.9% 65kt / 72h 26.6% 52.2% 39.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 EP112023 230905 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.70 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 16.8 11.9 15.5 14.9 14.4 13.4 14.5 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 84.0 86.0 86.0 84.0 83.0 76.0 71.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -7.0 -10.0 -12.0 -4.0 -4.0 6.0 U U U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%