Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230906 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 108.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 11.3 13.6 16.2 12.3 13.9 15.6 16.8 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 21.0 32.0 39.0 14.0 30.0 4.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3 82.4 67.7 52.2 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 137.0 154.0 172.0 165.0 124.0 123.0 8.0 65.0 VF VF VF VF F F U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 86.0 83.0 76.0 73.0 F F F VF F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -7.0 -13.0 -10.0 -11.0 -3.0 -1.0 2.0 F F VF F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 41.0% 27.9% 34.5% 25kt / 24h 78.2% 80.1% 79.1% 30kt / 24h 64.0% 75.4% 69.7% 35kt / 24h 53.2% 75.4% 64.3% 40kt / 24h 53.2% 75.3% 64.3% 45kt / 36h 63.1% 73.1% 68.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 56.0% 28.0% 55kt / 48h 47.3% 57.6% 52.4% 70kt / 48h 24.4% 45.6% 35.0% 65kt / 72h 12.5% 27.2% 19.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 EP112023 230906 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.00 108.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 11.3 13.6 16.2 12.3 13.9 15.6 16.8 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 86.0 83.0 76.0 73.0 U U U VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -7.0 -13.0 -10.0 -11.0 -3.0 -1.0 2.0 U U VU U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%