Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230906 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 80.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.4 12.1 11.9 13.4 16.1 17.6 17.9 17.4 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 32.0 42.0 35.0 17.0 28.0 1.0 0.0 U U N U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 89.3 77.9 65.5 47.7 26.7 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 154.0 145.0 154.0 99.0 108.0 33.0 69.0 23.0 VF VF VF F F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 86.0 86.0 85.0 84.0 80.0 75.0 68.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -12.0 -11.0 -11.0 -5.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 86.2% 69.4% 77.8% 25kt / 24h 99.4% 95.3% 97.4% 30kt / 24h 99.4% 95.3% 97.4% 35kt / 24h 99.4% 95.3% 97.4% 40kt / 24h 99.4% 94.8% 97.1% 45kt / 36h 85.8% 83.5% 84.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 75.2% 37.6% 55kt / 48h 50.4% 63.8% 57.1% 70kt / 48h 19.9% 46.5% 33.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.54 EP112023 230906 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.4 12.1 11.9 13.4 16.1 17.6 17.9 17.4 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 86.0 86.0 85.0 84.0 80.0 75.0 68.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -12.0 -11.0 -11.0 -5.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%