Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230906 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 93.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 14.9 15.3 16.8 17.4 15.3 18.2 15.3 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 36.0 28.0 13.0 30.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 74.3 74.3 60.7 37.7 22.2 10.5 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 134.0 155.0 91.0 83.0 89.0 25.0 60.0 23.0 VF VF F N F U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 84.0 79.0 75.0 74.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -13.0 -12.0 -11.0 -5.0 -6.0 -2.0 -2.0 F VF F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 80.3% 57.7% 69.0% 25kt / 24h 85.0% 85.8% 85.4% 30kt / 24h 85.0% 85.8% 85.4% 35kt / 24h 85.0% 85.8% 85.4% 40kt / 24h 85.0% 84.0% 84.5% 45kt / 36h 86.2% 67.8% 77.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 55.2% 27.6% 55kt / 48h 33.4% 21.8% 27.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 EP112023 230906 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 14.9 15.3 16.8 17.4 15.3 18.2 15.3 U U U N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 84.0 79.0 75.0 74.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -13.0 -12.0 -11.0 -5.0 -6.0 -2.0 -2.0 U VU U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%