Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  17.7  18.1  19.8  14.7  17.6  17.5  16.6  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  30.0  13.0  18.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  49.3  49.3  37.9  25.5   7.7 -14.5 -24.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   132.0  75.0  71.0  90.0  18.0  74.0   7.0  -2.0  F  N  N  F  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  80.0  77.0  72.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -12.0  -8.0  -8.0  -6.0  -8.0   0.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.4%       26.6%       44.5%
 25kt / 24h       46.6%       37.5%       42.0%
 30kt / 24h       33.0%       33.1%       33.0%
 35kt / 24h       30.1%       33.1%       31.6%
 40kt / 24h       30.1%       30.3%       30.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP112023 230906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  17.7  18.1  19.8  14.7  17.6  17.5  16.6  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  80.0  77.0  72.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -12.0  -8.0  -8.0  -6.0  -8.0   0.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%