Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.0  19.6  17.7  17.8  17.6  16.1  13.2  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  13.0  24.0  31.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.3  24.6  17.9   7.4  -9.0 -22.8 -43.3 -50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  55.0  66.0  36.0  32.0  26.0   1.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  82.0  83.0  80.0  72.0  67.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -9.0  -6.0  -4.0  -9.0   0.0   0.0   5.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.8%        0.0%       20.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 EP112023 230907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.0  19.6  17.7  17.8  17.6  16.1  13.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  82.0  83.0  80.0  72.0  67.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -9.0  -6.0  -4.0  -9.0   0.0   0.0   5.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%