Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  18.1  17.6  16.5  13.6  14.4  13.7  15.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  27.0  18.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.6   6.5   2.4 -12.3 -26.4 -47.3 -55.0 -59.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  61.0  38.0  24.0  58.0  28.0  -9.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP112023 230907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  18.1  17.6  16.5  13.6  14.4  13.7  15.8  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%