Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230907 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 115.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 90.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 17.7 13.4 12.7 15.5 14.6 14.3 14.9 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 16.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 11.5 -0.2 -7.3 -18.5 -32.1 -43.3 -50.0 -57.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 14.0 16.0 46.0 85.0 12.0 -7.0 34.0 N U U N F U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 76.0 76.0 69.0 64.0 61.0 55.0 F F F F N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 -4.0 -7.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 3.0 F N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 EP112023 230907 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 115.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135.