Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  11.5  13.2  14.1  13.9  13.4  17.6  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.8   2.7  -8.5 -11.4 -32.3 -40.0 -44.2 -47.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  27.0  44.0  71.0  34.0 -27.0   2.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -9.0  -7.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   8.0   8.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.56

 EP112023 230907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.