Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  13.3  14.0  15.6  14.6  17.0  17.7  26.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.7   1.5  -1.4 -13.3 -23.3 -34.2 -37.4 -37.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  27.0  57.0  84.0  -9.0   4.0  16.0  13.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   8.0   5.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.02

 EP112023 230908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.