Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.2  15.8  15.1  15.0  19.2  21.3  31.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.5   5.4   2.9  -7.3 -14.1 -19.2 -22.4 -24.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  54.0  72.0  53.0   2.0   2.0  21.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  60.0  55.0  49.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   8.0   6.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.30

 EP112023 230908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.