Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  15.6  16.2  13.9  16.3  18.5  24.8  33.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.4  17.9   8.8   7.7  -4.2  -8.1  -7.4  -9.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  50.0  34.0   4.0   8.0 -16.0  -6.0 -10.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.80

 EP112023 230908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.