Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230909 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 15.4 14.3 17.1 19.0 28.4 37.3 36.5 N F F F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 22.7 15.9 15.9 10.8 6.9 7.6 7.6 8.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 20.0 -11.0 7.0 8.0 13.0 -32.0 -22.0 N U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 67.0 66.0 64.0 58.0 51.0 46.0 42.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 6.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.62 EP112023 230909 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.