Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230909 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 124.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 14.9 16.7 19.7 24.3 32.9 37.8 35.5 F F F N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.7 25.9 20.8 20.8 16.9 17.6 17.6 18.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 -11.0 6.0 15.0 25.0 -15.0 -37.0 -32.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 62.0 59.0 53.0 49.0 45.0 40.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.32 EP112023 230909 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 124.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.