Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  16.0  18.7  20.5  28.3  38.2  33.9  36.4  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.9  25.8  25.8  21.9  22.6  22.6  22.6  24.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  15.0  25.0  34.0  12.0 -28.0 -13.0 -16.0  U  U  U  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  51.0  47.0  41.0  34.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   4.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   3.0   3.0  -2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.84

 EP112023 230909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.