Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.7  22.4  26.3  33.3  32.1  31.9  32.4  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.8  31.9  31.9  32.6  32.6  33.4  37.4  42.8  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  37.0  36.0  12.0 -25.0 -19.0  -2.0   4.0  U  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  48.0  43.0  34.0  28.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   3.0  -2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.42

 EP112023 230910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.