Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112023 230910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  22.3  26.6  29.6  34.9  32.4  36.6  39.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.9  36.9  37.6  37.6  38.4  39.2  43.3  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  20.0  17.0 -14.0 -30.0 -11.0  -4.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  44.0  38.0  30.0  27.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.34

 EP112023 230910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.