Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112023 230910 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 126.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 24.1 28.4 29.7 29.8 31.2 34.2 41.1 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.9 41.9 41.9 42.6 43.4 46.6 51.8 57.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 7.0 -7.0 -34.0 -16.0 -21.0 -14.0 15.0 U U U VU U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 53.0 52.0 50.0 42.0 36.0 30.0 28.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 6.0 6.0 2.0 3.0 -3.0 2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.22 EP112023 230910 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 126.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.