Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122023 230916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  22.1  22.3  20.5  21.6  26.6  26.6  26.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   4.0   6.0  10.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 121.5 119.4 119.4 119.4 119.4 119.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  26.0  19.0  11.0  23.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP122023 230916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  22.1  22.3  20.5  21.6  26.6  26.6  26.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%