Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122023 230917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  24.8  28.9  31.7  35.9  37.3  37.3  42.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0  15.0  31.0   8.0   8.0   9.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 125.1 125.1 125.1 129.6 125.1 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   6.0   1.0  -9.0 -14.0 -25.0  28.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  46.0  49.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 EP122023 230917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  24.8  28.9  31.7  35.9  37.3  37.3  42.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  46.0  49.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%