Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122023 230918 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 31.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 31.5 32.8 34.4 33.7 36.2 43.3 46.5 N U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 30.0 11.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 24.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.1 130.1 130.1 134.6 134.6 134.6 130.1 132.3 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 -28.0 -22.0 -19.0 -20.0 15.0 27.0 34.0 VU VU VU U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 47.0 43.0 47.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.04 EP122023 230918 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 31.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 31.5 32.8 34.4 33.7 36.2 43.3 46.5 N N F F F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 47.0 43.0 47.0 46.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%