Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122023 230918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  33.6  33.6  32.9  36.2  41.4  40.4  51.6  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   8.0   9.0  12.0  29.0  13.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6 132.0 129.6 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -18.0 -40.0 -26.0   5.0  15.0  34.0  31.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  46.0  50.0  49.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 EP122023 230918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  33.6  33.6  32.9  36.2  41.4  40.4  51.6  N  F  F  F  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  46.0  50.0  49.0  50.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%