Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132023 230919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  22.7  17.5  16.6  27.3  38.3  54.8  69.5  N  N  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0   9.0   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 112.4 110.5 101.2  89.6  70.5  51.6  42.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  81.0  50.0  58.0  51.0  28.0  31.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  58.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.6%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        9.7%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 EP132023 230919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  22.7  17.5  16.6  27.3  38.3  54.8  69.5  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  58.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%