Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132023 230919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  17.7  14.6  16.6  21.3  27.8  32.4  41.1  N  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   9.0   8.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 108.6 106.5 104.4  94.8  86.0  75.0  58.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  27.0  26.0  20.0  22.0  29.0  48.0  10.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  56.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        5.9%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       28.8%       19.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       16.0%       11.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       16.0%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       15.7%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       36.1%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.0%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        1.7%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        6.3%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 EP132023 230919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  17.7  14.6  16.6  21.3  27.8  32.4  41.1  N  N  U  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  56.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%