Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132023 230920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.8  18.2  20.6  24.9  29.4  32.4  40.8  N  F  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   9.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 108.6 106.5 104.4  94.8  86.0  66.7  58.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  34.0  15.0  14.0   9.0  40.0  43.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  57.0  51.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   9.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       10.7%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        4.3%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       10.1%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 EP132023 230920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.8  18.2  20.6  24.9  29.4  32.4  40.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  57.0  51.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   9.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%