Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132023 230920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  18.4  21.1  22.8  27.9  30.6  37.9  47.6  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  10.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 106.5 104.4  94.8  94.8  75.0  66.7  58.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   0.0 -13.0  -9.0  19.0  39.0  11.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  54.0  49.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   7.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 EP132023 230920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  18.4  21.1  22.8  27.9  30.6  37.9  47.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  54.0  49.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   7.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%