Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132023 230920 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 23.2 24.6 28.0 31.9 31.4 41.7 44.8 F N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 11.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.5 99.4 99.4 89.8 81.0 70.0 61.7 53.2 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 14.0 3.0 -11.0 21.0 39.0 25.0 -5.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 65.0 62.0 61.0 55.0 50.0 40.0 35.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 7.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 N N U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 2.5% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 7.1% 4.1% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 3.2% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.0% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 EP132023 230920 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.