Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132023 230920 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 25.4 30.6 32.9 34.4 38.7 47.5 42.5 N N U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 9.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.4 99.4 89.8 89.8 71.5 61.7 53.2 53.2 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 22.0 -16.0 -6.0 11.0 37.0 5.0 -11.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 60.0 59.0 56.0 50.0 44.0 34.0 31.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 13.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 N U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 2.9% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 6.4% 3.7% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 3.0% 1.8% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.8% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 2.6% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 4.3% 2.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 EP132023 230920 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.